Here are my (uneducated) predictions for the major awards:
Best Picture-
LaLa Land (Hollywood loves movies about Hollywood)
Best Actor- Casey Affleck (because he is amazing in a dreadfully depressing movie-Hollywood wants us to think it is deep )
Best Actress- Emma Stone (have to justify that LaLa Land win)
Supporting Actor- Mahershala Ali (His SAG speech was killer. And he's a wonderful actor)
Supporting Actress- Viola Davis or Octavia Spencer (tough call. Viola Davis is the better actress, but
Hidden Figures isn't taking home any other major awards, and Hollywood is still stinging from 'Oscars so white' last year)
Animated-
Moana (should be
Kubo and the Two Strings. We'll see what happens.)
Cinematography-
Arrival (Highly reviewed, not as highly attended. A bone to critics, if you will)
Costuming-
Florence Foster Jenkins (should be
Fantastic Beasts, but Meryl Streep isn't taking home an Oscar this year...)
Directing-Toss up between Kenneth Lonergan for
Manchester By The Sea and whoever directed LaLa Land. Lonergan is very well respected as a playwright and script doctor--this probably gives him an edge.
LaLa Land is Hollywood loving itself, though. Edge to Lonergan.
Original song-the
Moana song by Lin Manuel Miranda. If the academy can't give him an Oscar for
Hamilton, by God it will get him on that stage for something!
I didn't really care about these, but now I'm curious whether my logical predictions (I've seen almost none of the nominated movies this year) will pan out